Officials say the lowest level at which Glen Canyon Dam can . Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center Economist Lucas Bair previously told Newsweek that hydroelectricity, powered by the water, is a cheaper, cleaner form of energy. In addition to the power the lake generates directly, it is a major source of grid resilience when full, serving as a quick backup source in cases where solar or wind power cant meet demand. In the desert of California lies another manmade lake condemned to death, the Salton Sea. Water levels at . The second-largest man-made reservoir in the country has dropped to unthinkable lows amid the West's climate change-driven megadrought. The proposal, negotiated in secret for more than a year, would ship river water to Prescott and Williams on the north to Sierra Vista and Bens, Depending on what assumptions are made in its computer models, the risks of catastrophically low levels at Mead by 2026 have jumped three to s. They both use water from the Colorado River. Lake Mead's decline is not happening in isolation, but is the result of a two-decade drought hitting the western U.S. and causing critical water shortages on the Colorado River. Exceptional drought is a category that is supposed to capture the severity and frequency of an extended dry period. It does not store any personal data. Since Lake Powell is primarily sandstone, the lake actually leaks water into the porous rocks. The fact that they're becoming involved in this manner points to real concerns that they must have and they must view the situation as one of extreme difficulty that requires them to act more directly. We know that well lose hydropower, and they wont be able to make hydropower below 3,490, she said. Glen Canyon Dam in Lake Powell near Page, Arizona on July 4, 2010. Experts think that eventually, Lake Powell might dry up altogether, in the face of the droughts plaguing the Western U.S. Over two thirds of the entire country is now in some degree of drought conditions, with the area of state borderland where Lake Powell is situated being classified as in "Extreme Drought," according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. a study published in the journal Science said the current dry period in the Southwest is one for the record books, and that its "megadrought-like trajectory" is fueled by natural variability superimposed on . The water in Lake Mead on Wednesday reached a new low 1070.6 feet above sea level since it was filled in the 1930's, according to data provided by the US Bureau of Reclamation. As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. The wells that now supply Tucson are at 400 - 500 feet under the surface. While levels are on a long downward trend, they fluctuate with the seasons. The Lower Basin states have already agreed on two short-term programs to reduce their take of water from Mead. Things will have to change in how we do business.. Creosote is one I personally like to call it the cockroach of the vegetation world because pretty much nothing kills creosote. Asthe latest round of federal forecastsfor the rivers flow shows, its plausible, maybe even likely, that the situation could get much worse this year. A variation of the _gat cookie set by Google Analytics and Google Tag Manager to allow website owners to track visitor behaviour and measure site performance. Im John Dankosky, and now its time to check in on the state of science. The repercussions of a draining water supply are immense -- farms are drying up, a once-thriving marina now sits more than a mile from lake water and Arizona's Department of Water Resources is . Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. In a wetter year, it will release 9 million acre feet to Mead. And those cutbacks are spelled out in agreements that the states and the federal government have put together in order to manage some of that decline. What are the effects of climate change? At Lake Mead's current capacity, one foot of elevation in the lake equals 85,000 acre-feet. In the year 2000, the two reservoirs were 95% full. Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Homicide. We can not, unfortunately, say that these kinds of potentially catastrophic events will not occur under climate change, he said. "That has brought everything to a head much earlier than people thought it would.". And that sponge is very dry right now, and its sucking up all of that water before it can be used as water supply. The ranking by American Rivers is the sixth time since 1991 that all or part of the Colorado topped its endangered list. That is incorrect. Thank you for helping us continue making science fun for everyone. But Phoenix will store a good deal of its Colorado River supply down here, in exchange for having access to some of Tucson's supply during shortages. LUKE RUNYON: Well, Arizona is in the line for the steepest cuts from the Colorado River. Water managers across the region are on the clock to come up with new rules for how to share Colorado River water before 2026, when the current guidelines expire. With the dropping water levels, this industry is likely to be extremely impacted, as seen by a boating ramp that used to. The dam's evil has had no more prolific publicist than the writer Edward Abbey, whose Monkey Wrench Gang aspired ultimately to bring down the dam. The district entered 2021 with a record 3.2 million acre-feet of water storage saved up, including 1.3 million acre-feet in Lake Mead. And right now, people are watching the level of Lake Mead very intensely, because when it dips below a critical threshold, people have to start taking less water from the river. That could cripple the ability of the Colorado Rivers four Upper Basin states to deliver river water to the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada, as theyre legally obligated to do. With the dropping water levels, this industry is likely to be extremely impacted, as seen by a boating ramp that used to be used to launch boats now having a 50 foot drop between the end of the ramp and the water. The shoreline it creates, in a red rock desert, is longer than the entire U.S. West Coast.. The water levels in Lake Powell are dramatically lower than they were in 2021, which in turn were lower than they were in 2020. The low levels arent just causing hand-wringing among the Wests water officials. The water levels behind the Colorado Rivers biggest dams are fast-approaching or already at record lows. Lake Powell (credit: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) The power pool mark is 3,490 feet of elevation. Lake Mead and Lake Powell rise and fall together, said Chuck Cullom, the Central Arizona Projects Colorado River programs manager. LUKE RUNYON: Yeah, so this is something that is harder for us to visualize, because were so used to looking at reservoirs and rivers. You would have to go back to April of 1937, also twoyears into its initial filling, to find levels that low. Satellite images show the dramatic impact of the 22-year-long mega-drought that . And you know, those are cutbacks that users are actually going to feel and that municipal leaders, farmers, tribal users in Arizona are having to plan for right now. However, experts have warned such measures cannot be a long-term solution. For terms of use and more information, visit our policies pages athttp://www.sciencefriday.com/about/policies/. If the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years. Whether the six-year cycle of 2000-05 repeats itself is anybodys guess, said Pat Tyrrell, Wyoming state engineer who has been involved in the Upper Basin water talks. Lake Mead's level is 1,047 feet above sea level. This cookie is managed by Amazon Web Services and is used for load balancing. 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A subscription helps you access more of the local stories that keep you connected to the community. And you know, thats way beyond any sort of voluntary conservation that Arizona has done up until this point. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. Meanwhile, climate change is adding pressure to the entire river system, exacerbating existing supply and demand imbalances. A load balancing cookie set to ensure requests by a client are sent to the same origin server. Last week, the lake reached a disturbing new. In parts of the Colorado River basin, Bolinger said climate change has caused conditions on the ground to bump up against the designated drought categories. Thats about the amount of water that our soils are behind in terms of what they normally would have, Meyer said. Azure sets this cookie for routing production traffic by specifying the production slot. At 3,522 feet, Lake Powell's water surface elevation is at its lowest point since it was first filled in the 1960s, per a statement. At that point, Upper Basin states would start delivering water from their other reservoirs to Powell. The water level at Lake Mead is sitting at just 39%, while Lake Powell is at 36%. The Colorado River systems reservoirs combined arecurrently less than half full. If that does come to pass, Tyrell said he is fairly confident we can deal with worst case scenario if it ever happens.. All rights reserved. Such is the nature of the climate change beast that we have unleashed.. Hawes noted that the lake has never reached that point before, creating substantial uncertainty about what would happen. The new studys analysis is consistent with the studies and analyses CAP has been doing and is part of the reason its been focusing on trying to protect Lake Mead, Cullom said. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. We called several of them and asked for discrete numbers that capture the current state of the Colorado River basin. This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. On Sunday afternoon, boaters spending a day at the lake stumbled upon a barrel and were able to see that it had human remains in it, according to CNN. Falling water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell have been concerning for several years. During those 25 years, the rivers annual flow averaged 13.2 million acre feet a bit less than what the Bureau of Reclamations studies have predicted it would carry by 2050 thanks to warming weather and other climate changes, Ostler noted. Both reservoirs have troublingly low water levels at 1,054.79 and 3,524.22 feet above sea level, respectively. Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. JOHN DANKOSKY: Local science stories of national significance. Scientists say the current status of Lake Mead is a stark illustration of climate change and a megadrought that could be the worst in the U.S. West in 1,200 years . Its important to differentiate between Lake Powell running dry versus Lake Powell dropping below elevation 3,490 [feet], Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy, told The Hill in an interview. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience. The Bureau's projections show a 3% chance that Lake Powell's water levels fall below the minimum level necessary for the lake's Glen Canyon Dam to generate hydroelectricity next year. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday. Udall questioned the validity of using the years before 2000 because the years 1990 to 1999 were very wet and not representative of the weather we see now. The . Okay. What about the idea of a water shortage? Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir and one thatprovides water and power to millions of people in southern California, has reached its lowest levels since its first filling in the 1960s. JOHN DANKOSKY: So you know, with so many stories like this, we say, this is probably due to climate change. Then after all that maybe people will start doing what they should have done years ago at least until the share holders send checks to the politicians again. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. Used by Yahoo to provide ads, content or analytics. A warmer, drier climate will only increase the strain on Lake Mead and other water sources in the area Today, Lake Mead looks like a shell of its former self, hitting a new record low water level of 1,068.08 feet above sea level, according to a report from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Now what? If allocations from the Colorado River dip below the levels necessary for some customers to receive hydropower, the real question [becomes] what can our grid accommodate from a hydropower perspective in terms of compensating production losses from Glen Canyon? said Justin Mankin, an assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth College. The future of the reservoir is largely uncertain, but climate science and recent actions by the government are providing some hints as to what might happen in the near future. If the reservoirs reach dead-pool levels, more than a million people using the electricity could be required to find new power sources. House Democrat nods to Kellyanne Conway in push to make Hatch Act violations a Hemorrhaging losses, the Feds problems are now the taxpayers, Lukashenko arrives in Beijing as concerns rise around China-Russia relations. One acre-foot generally provides enough water for one to two households for a year. What states, what tribal nations, does this cut through? Weve seen declines in snowpack at the headwaters of the Colorado River and its tributaries. We'll assume you're okay with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. 2020. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. As an imbalance between water supplies and demands grows in the region, KUNC is committed to covering the stories that emerge. At 3,370 feet, the reservoir hits. And it would increase the likelihood of cutbacks in river water deliveries to Arizona, in particular. Glen Canyon Dam can release water below minimum power pool through bypass jets until an elevation of 3,370 feet, which is then the top of dead pool and no further water can be released. At full capacity, Lake Powell holds enough water to flood the entire state of Kentucky a foot deep. This cookie, set by Cloudflare, is used to support Cloudflare Bot Management. As snowpack runoff disappeared into dry ground instead of hitting the reservoirs, engineers calculated a 79% chance Lake Powell will fall below its minimum target water height of 3,525 feet above sea level next year. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. First of all Lake Powell is not gonna dry up. And its easy to put them off if you get a wet year. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". When its needed its released to Lake Mead and the three Lower Basin states. Because of the record dry soils and lagging snowpack, theyrelikely headed to their lowest levelssince they were filled decades ago. An official shortage declaration from the federal government could come as early as this year, as Lake Mead is currently projected to be below 1,075 feet in elevation at the end of 2021. Subscribe to stay connected to Tucson. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. The lake was just under 24 percent full as of. JOHN DANKOSKY: So Colorado is obviously the name of this water system, but for people who dont know the Colorado River, maybe just give us a little geography lesson. Answer (1 of 2): It has been forecast by professionals to be sometime in 2020 when action will have to be taken by the Southern NV Water District (or whatever their exact title is) to enact or enforce water conservation. And thats Lake Powell in southern Utah and Lake Mead, which is on the Nevada-Arizona border near Las Vegas. Together, these reservoirs, fed by the mighty Colorado River, provide the water 40million Americans depend on. They are trying to negotiate a three-state deal that would reduce water deliveries even further, he said. The cookie is used to store and identify a users' unique session ID for the purpose of managing user session on the website. Officials have already taken some stopgap measures to avert the lake getting down to the pivotal 3,490-foot mark. Phoenix has underground wells and plusa it gets water from the CAP canal directly from the Colorado river, then there are several near full dams nearby. We don't know if the dam will operate as expected. Despite the storms that brought heavy rain and snow to California and other Western states in January, experts say it would take years of such weather to replenish the West's water resources. Are experts looking at this saying, its just going to get worse in the Colorado River basin? Northern Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates the lake, has a full capacity of 1,320 megawatts, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. And so when you have snow thats melting off, it gets soaked up into the ground before it flows into a river or flows into a reservoir. LUKE RUNYON: Sure, so much of the attention in the basin goes towards the rivers largest reservoirs, which also happen to be the biggest reservoirs in the entire United States. Point, Upper Basin states would start delivering water from Mead however, experts warned. A boating ramp that used to store and identify a users ' unique session ID for the cookies the. And see how visitors move around the site part of the record dry soils and lagging snowpack, theyrelikely to. The ranking by American Rivers is the sixth time since 1991 that all or part of the stories... Water levels behind the Colorado topped its endangered list option to opt-out these. 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